***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 15.5 117.0 64.0 57.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.3 15.8 124.0 64.0 58.2 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 14.8 15.9 124.0 68.0 59.7 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.4 20.9 17.1 125.9 70.4 58.6 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 14.2 16.0 122.2 67.6 58.0 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.6 17.7 128.6 73.2 59.9 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.4 15.4 119.1 63.5 57.0 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.5 20.0 18.1 130.7 68.6 60.0 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.0 13.3 15.9 117.9 65.7 56.9 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 16.8 17.1 122.5 66.5 58.1 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.1 16.2 15.2 124.6 67.9 57.6 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.1 18.9 16.1 131.0 70.5 59.1 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.8 14.3 16.8 127.9 73.6 58.7 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.6 17.9 18.6 129.7 68.1 60.8 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.5 36.3 19.9 149.2 78.1 63.3 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 19.5 15.7 126.9 71.7 58.4 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.2 10.1 15.0 120.9 63.7 57.1 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.0 17.6 18.6 120.5 67.3 58.3 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.7 16.0 128.3 67.0 59.7 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 24.6 24.9 129.4 68.6 60.6 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.5 15.7 120.1 66.3 58.7 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.8 15.5 121.1 64.0 58.0 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.1 16.5 132.1 70.5 61.2 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.7 16.9 120.8 67.1 58.6 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.3 17.2 120.0 65.2 58.2 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.1 18.0 134.3 73.1 59.4 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.9 16.5 116.8 63.9 57.0 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.5 21.8 17.6 135.0 74.1 59.9 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.1 22.1 20.9 122.2 65.7 58.7 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.1 15.9 124.0 64.7 58.7 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------