***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.3 28.8 29.1 21.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.7 2.3 3.5 35.6 33.4 24.1 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.7 1.2 3.3 29.2 24.3 20.5 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 2.9 6.0 45.6 33.5 32.0 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.8 28.4 28.1 21.7 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 3.6 2.1 4.2 32.7 30.3 24.5 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.2 1.7 3.5 35.7 33.7 24.4 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 6.3 3.5 3.8 27.1 23.3 21.1 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 1.7 0.5 3.5 26.2 24.4 19.2 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 1.5 1.1 3.6 26.0 22.1 19.6 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.7 3.3 25.2 27.3 19.9 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.8 0.5 3.6 27.9 26.8 22.1 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.2 1.0 4.0 29.9 26.6 22.8 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 2.7 3.0 4.6 35.8 21.9 23.5 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.8 8.2 65.9 45.6 42.6 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.2 0.5 3.9 30.1 28.0 23.3 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.7 39.1 37.9 26.5 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 2.3 1.3 4.2 29.2 20.1 21.0 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.7 2.0 3.5 34.9 30.3 23.6 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 2.5 1.4 5.5 32.6 23.8 22.6 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 2.3 1.5 3.3 26.4 26.5 19.6 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 3.3 3.5 4.0 40.3 33.2 26.8 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.2 2.2 3.8 34.6 28.0 22.7 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 1.4 1.1 4.0 30.5 19.9 21.1 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.6 1.1 3.8 28.8 26.6 21.5 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 3.4 2.6 4.5 34.5 30.9 25.7 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 1.0 0.6 3.4 27.6 26.8 20.1 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.0 6.8 53.4 38.5 36.6 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 4.0 3.5 4.8 31.5 21.5 21.7 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.7 1.6 3.4 33.2 29.5 22.7 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------