***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 1.3 69.8 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.6 7.0 1.1 67.3 64.2 5.2 6.1 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.8 9.0 7.6 1.3 69.5 66.2 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.7 2.8 4.9 0.6 61.3 58.8 1.3 2.5 3.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.6 6.1 1.0 66.6 63.0 7.1 7.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 7.9 8.2 5.6 1.3 70.4 66.0 6.4 7.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.4 6.8 1.0 67.3 63.4 5.2 6.2 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.6 2.6 5.9 1.3 70.7 66.8 0.2 1.4 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.3 9.3 7.0 1.2 68.5 64.4 7.6 7.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.0 6.4 1.3 70.1 66.0 6.6 7.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.5 6.3 1.2 68.2 64.7 7.0 7.9 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 9.2 8.9 6.3 1.4 70.5 66.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 8.9 9.0 6.3 1.7 73.4 69.5 7.2 7.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.4 7.2 1.2 68.2 64.9 6.6 7.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.9 5.3 0.6 59.6 57.7 5.6 6.4 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 9.4 9.2 6.1 1.3 69.7 65.7 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.8 6.5 0.9 64.6 61.7 4.8 5.7 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 7.0 7.5 6.4 1.5 71.1 67.7 4.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.8 8.1 7.3 1.2 68.4 65.3 5.9 6.7 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.4 4.9 1.6 73.3 69.7 3.2 5.0 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.9 7.3 1.2 68.6 64.7 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.4 6.8 1.0 65.9 62.5 5.5 6.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.4 7.6 1.3 69.5 66.2 5.7 6.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.1 7.3 1.4 69.5 66.5 7.3 8.4 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.8 6.0 1.1 68.1 64.6 5.9 6.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 8.4 8.8 6.1 1.7 77.2 71.2 6.5 7.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.8 6.8 1.2 69.4 66.2 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.6 5.3 0.6 60.6 57.9 6.1 6.6 7.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.7 5.9 1.7 72.8 69.5 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.8 7.2 1.2 68.8 65.3 5.6 6.4 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------