***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 0.1 46.7 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.9 4.1 0.1 47.8 50.1 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.1 4.7 0.2 47.4 50.8 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -0.4 2.7 0.0 48.0 48.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.6 3.4 0.1 48.5 49.9 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.0 3.0 0.3 51.6 52.6 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.4 3.5 3.9 0.0 46.8 49.4 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -1.6 0.0 3.3 0.4 49.7 52.7 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.7 4.2 0.2 47.4 50.6 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.6 3.8 0.3 49.1 52.0 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.8 3.6 0.3 47.9 50.9 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.9 3.6 0.4 49.3 52.5 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.5 3.3 0.4 50.5 53.3 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.7 4.5 0.5 52.3 52.5 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.4 2.9 -0.1 45.4 48.3 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.0 3.3 0.3 48.4 51.3 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.4 3.8 0.1 49.4 49.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.7 0.5 51.0 53.1 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.2 4.4 0.2 48.5 50.8 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 3.1 2.2 0.5 51.8 54.1 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.9 4.4 0.2 48.6 50.3 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.0 4.1 0.2 50.7 50.8 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.3 4.7 0.4 48.6 51.6 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.1 4.5 0.4 50.3 52.2 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.3 3.1 0.1 47.7 49.7 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.6 3.2 0.4 46.9 53.8 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.7 0.1 46.7 50.2 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.5 3.0 0.0 46.5 48.8 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.3 2.3 3.1 0.6 52.1 54.0 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.1 4.2 0.1 47.2 50.1 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------