***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 8.5 1.6 69.1 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.3 8.0 1.3 62.7 61.1 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.8 10.9 8.6 1.5 68.1 62.1 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.5 6.5 1.4 64.2 60.9 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 10.5 10.6 7.4 1.6 67.4 62.3 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.8 7.0 2.0 70.0 65.9 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.1 7.9 1.3 62.5 61.7 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.6 7.0 1.7 69.1 64.0 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.5 8.1 1.6 68.6 62.2 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.0 10.5 7.6 1.7 69.2 63.1 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.5 7.6 1.8 69.1 63.9 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.5 7.6 1.9 69.1 64.9 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 11.0 11.9 7.5 2.2 71.6 67.2 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.0 8.1 1.4 66.9 60.9 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.8 6.4 1.2 61.4 60.1 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.3 12.1 7.4 1.9 69.9 64.7 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.0 7.5 1.0 60.9 59.4 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.2 7.4 1.7 70.0 63.1 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.5 8.2 1.3 62.5 61.0 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 6.9 7.5 5.8 1.7 70.4 64.9 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.8 8.4 1.6 68.6 62.4 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.1 7.7 0.9 58.8 58.4 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.5 8.5 1.3 62.4 60.9 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.5 8.2 1.6 68.6 62.1 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.3 7.2 1.5 68.3 63.5 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.3 10.7 7.3 2.2 71.9 68.6 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.8 11.5 7.9 1.6 69.3 64.2 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.4 6.7 1.3 63.2 60.4 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.5 6.8 1.7 70.7 64.2 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.7 8.2 1.4 64.1 61.9 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------