***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 10.7 3.0 66.3 68.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.9 10.3 2.8 67.4 69.1 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.9 10.9 3.0 66.6 68.6 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 98 2 100 4.2 4.7 6.3 0.7 55.4 55.5 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 9.9 11.3 8.5 1.9 60.4 61.3 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 8.8 9.8 7.7 2.1 61.8 62.4 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 10.4 10.7 9.9 2.5 66.9 67.6 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 2.8 4.0 8.7 2.8 62.5 65.1 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 10.4 11.6 9.9 2.4 61.4 63.7 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 9.9 10.8 9.4 2.7 62.8 65.0 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 10.2 10.2 8.8 2.2 60.8 62.5 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 9.9 10.9 8.8 2.6 61.7 64.6 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 10.6 12.0 9.6 3.3 66.1 67.7 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 11.1 12.8 10.6 3.0 66.1 67.1 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 98 2 100 7.9 8.9 7.5 0.8 55.5 54.0 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 10.6 11.9 8.7 2.4 62.5 63.6 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 9.8 10.3 9.6 2.5 66.5 67.9 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 9.9 9.6 9.7 3.4 66.8 68.1 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.5 10.7 3.1 68.0 70.1 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 9.2 8.5 8.5 3.8 69.9 71.6 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 10.3 11.3 10.3 2.5 62.3 64.6 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.0 10.1 2.7 67.6 69.4 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.4 11.1 3.3 68.5 70.6 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 11.1 12.8 10.6 3.2 66.4 67.7 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 9.1 10.6 9.1 2.4 62.9 64.4 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.3 11.4 9.1 3.5 70.7 70.3 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 9.8 12.0 10.2 2.9 66.1 67.7 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 98 2 100 8.9 9.1 6.8 0.6 53.6 53.8 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.0 8.3 9.6 4.0 70.4 71.6 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.1 10.6 3.0 67.6 69.3 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------