***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 2.1 1.3 70.7 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 69.2 64.6 -0.8 0.1 1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 2.9 3.2 1.9 1.4 72.5 68.6 1.2 2.1 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 -2.7 -2.6 -0.4 1.3 67.9 66.0 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 0.9 1.1 0.0 1.2 68.0 65.1 -1.3 0.1 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 0.2 0.7 -1.4 1.5 71.3 67.7 -1.7 -0.8 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 64.7 61.5 -0.8 0.1 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -3.7 -3.7 -0.5 1.7 72.5 69.5 -5.6 -4.7 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 1.5 1.8 0.7 1.2 69.7 65.1 -0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 0.9 1.3 -0.1 1.5 71.6 67.8 -0.8 0.1 1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 0.8 1.2 0.0 1.4 70.6 67.1 -1.3 0.1 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 0.0 0.3 -0.2 1.5 70.6 67.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 0.8 0.7 -0.6 1.4 70.2 66.9 -1.3 0.1 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 1.5 1.8 0.6 1.3 69.8 66.7 0.3 0.8 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.3 69.8 67.3 -0.4 0.0 0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 1.4 1.7 -0.5 1.4 69.7 67.2 -0.3 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 66.2 61.6 -0.8 0.0 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 1.6 69.5 68.7 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 70.9 66.9 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 -3.0 -2.8 -1.5 1.9 72.8 71.5 -5.7 -3.8 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 70.7 66.7 -0.9 0.6 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.0 68.5 63.8 -0.8 0.2 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 71.3 68.7 -0.3 0.1 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.5 71.8 68.3 -0.5 0.0 0.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 1.5 1.7 0.7 1.3 68.5 66.7 -0.7 0.6 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 0.7 1.0 -0.5 1.4 70.5 67.7 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.1 67.0 64.3 -0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 68.2 65.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 1.8 71.1 70.3 -3.3 -2.5 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 69.4 65.5 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------