***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 2.0 65.5 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 1.7 2.2 2.9 1.8 64.7 64.9 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 4.0 4.5 3.2 2.1 66.3 66.7 1.0 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -1.1 1.0 2.1 66.8 66.1 -3.8 -2.4 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.1 68.2 66.0 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 1.6 1.4 0.1 2.3 69.2 67.5 -1.0 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 1.7 1.7 2.8 1.6 61.8 63.2 -0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -2.1 -2.1 0.9 2.4 69.5 67.3 -5.3 -4.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 1.7 2.8 2.2 2.1 67.2 65.6 0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 2.4 2.6 1.4 2.4 67.5 66.4 -0.1 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 2.5 3.1 1.5 2.3 69.3 67.0 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 1.8 2.1 1.3 2.3 69.4 67.3 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.1 0.9 2.3 68.9 67.3 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 65.0 65.4 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.9 68.1 65.9 -0.4 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 3.3 3.5 0.9 2.3 68.9 66.8 0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 1.0 1.2 2.6 1.5 61.7 62.5 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.5 66.6 66.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 2.5 2.0 3.0 1.9 66.7 66.2 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -1.0 -1.2 0.1 2.7 70.4 68.3 -4.4 -3.5 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 1.3 2.5 2.9 2.1 67.7 65.9 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 2.2 0.9 2.7 1.6 66.1 63.3 -0.4 0.5 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.0 66.6 67.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 65.0 66.7 -0.1 1.0 1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 1.3 3.0 2.0 2.1 67.7 66.6 0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.5 1.2 2.4 72.2 69.1 -0.8 0.5 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 1.6 3.2 2.7 2.0 64.9 65.4 -0.6 1.0 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 0.5 1.2 1.0 2.0 66.9 65.5 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -0.2 0.0 0.7 2.6 68.2 67.3 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.4 3.1 1.9 64.2 65.4 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------