***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 3.1 69.6 73.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 2.9 3.8 4.0 2.8 71.1 71.9 -0.4 1.5 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.5 4.8 3.6 73.9 76.0 1.0 2.6 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 -0.4 0.8 2.2 3.1 71.9 72.6 -5.3 -2.3 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 0.6 1.8 2.4 2.6 67.0 69.3 -0.8 0.1 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 2.0 3.0 0.4 2.9 70.6 71.7 -1.9 -0.7 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 2.1 3.4 3.3 2.0 66.5 66.3 -0.3 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -1.7 -0.9 1.9 3.7 74.6 75.8 -5.8 -3.8 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 3.2 4.0 2.8 2.6 68.7 70.2 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.5 72.1 73.8 -1.6 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 2.3 1.4 2.3 2.9 69.4 71.1 -1.4 0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.0 69.5 71.6 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 1.6 1.6 1.1 2.5 67.9 68.0 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 3.0 3.9 3.2 3.1 70.1 72.6 -0.3 0.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 3.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 79.0 78.9 -0.2 1.4 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 3.0 2.9 1.7 2.8 70.0 71.1 -0.7 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.3 68.9 68.5 -0.1 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.6 72.7 73.9 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 3.2 4.0 4.4 3.3 74.0 75.5 -0.1 1.6 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -1.0 0.7 4.1 75.0 76.3 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 3.3 2.2 4.0 3.0 69.1 71.9 -0.8 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 2.7 3.1 3.8 2.7 70.1 71.9 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 2.7 3.5 4.6 3.6 77.1 78.3 -0.8 0.5 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.4 72.3 74.4 -1.3 -0.3 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 3.0 2.6 3.6 3.2 68.7 72.3 -0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 2.3 3.0 1.2 2.6 68.1 68.7 -1.5 0.6 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 1.1 4.2 3.3 2.4 66.3 68.6 -0.7 0.5 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.1 73.8 73.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.9 75.9 76.2 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 3.6 4.1 4.3 2.9 71.5 72.4 -0.2 2.0 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------