***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.0 35.6 70.9 30.1 33.3 24.7 38.5 47.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 24.8 24.5 31.4 70.0 29.1 33.1 28.6 34.4 43.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 22.3 24.5 33.6 68.4 29.4 31.9 30.2 40.6 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 34.7 41.9 46.5 79.6 35.9 37.9 40.0 48.7 60.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 25.9 28.5 37.0 66.3 27.2 29.4 28.9 43.4 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 24.9 29.8 37.6 69.3 31.0 30.7 30.6 39.3 45.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 21.6 23.2 31.8 72.1 31.6 34.4 24.7 36.6 43.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 43.3 40.2 39.8 66.3 28.1 29.4 52.3 69.1 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 22.1 22.6 37.0 66.5 28.4 29.7 22.9 42.8 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 31.4 26.6 38.8 66.1 26.8 29.1 32.1 50.7 61.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 28.9 24.0 35.8 64.8 28.2 28.5 28.5 43.8 63.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 32.0 25.5 36.6 66.2 29.4 29.6 28.9 53.2 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 30.7 34.3 39.4 68.2 28.1 29.8 36.9 49.5 62.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 37.4 33.5 40.3 66.9 26.7 30.6 37.6 59.6 79.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 33.4 43.4 47.4 82.7 38.5 40.6 34.9 58.6 74.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 25.9 31.2 37.6 67.6 27.9 29.9 32.1 42.9 61.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 24.4 21.2 31.5 71.2 31.0 33.9 22.7 36.7 50.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 31.1 32.8 41.3 68.7 27.0 30.6 35.9 46.9 64.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.4 22.6 31.5 68.5 27.8 32.0 26.7 34.0 58.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 33.5 36.1 51.6 68.7 28.0 31.0 39.7 46.4 63.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 23.2 31.6 36.0 67.9 29.1 30.9 36.1 42.4 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.8 26.5 32.6 69.9 28.5 32.6 29.0 40.9 53.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 25.3 22.2 33.2 67.8 26.6 31.3 27.9 40.4 48.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 34.7 33.0 37.9 67.4 28.9 30.7 34.9 62.1 77.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 23.6 22.7 40.3 71.0 29.4 32.6 25.2 40.0 47.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 31.3 35.3 43.8 75.5 35.9 34.1 34.8 43.9 60.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 23.1 22.4 37.4 71.1 29.1 33.1 26.9 40.6 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 27.7 28.8 43.9 78.9 35.5 37.9 25.4 43.0 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 45.1 44.2 44.8 69.8 28.2 31.4 46.5 71.7 94.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 21.9 21.8 32.0 69.7 28.9 32.8 24.1 35.5 40.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------