***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 7.1 13.5 104.3 60.6 50.4 2.3 3.8 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.2 11.5 99.1 54.9 47.7 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.1 13.1 106.8 60.3 50.7 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.5 13.9 99.3 60.5 48.1 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.9 13.9 100.7 60.2 48.3 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.6 12.2 93.0 56.4 46.7 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.2 11.5 100.2 55.6 47.6 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 16.7 14.6 103.0 62.0 48.3 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.4 14.9 106.7 63.0 50.3 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.0 15.3 107.1 63.0 50.0 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.1 13.0 97.7 61.2 46.9 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.1 12.6 95.9 58.7 46.2 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.3 13.2 94.9 56.2 46.4 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.4 17.9 15.7 105.8 59.5 50.0 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 9.9 12.7 93.5 59.2 46.4 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.0 12.7 95.3 58.4 46.6 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.7 10.6 92.2 52.3 45.6 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.1 16.6 112.8 64.4 50.9 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.9 11.6 99.4 55.3 47.9 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 13.4 20.2 112.3 65.8 49.8 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.0 14.1 105.9 61.5 50.4 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.1 10.6 87.7 51.5 44.3 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.0 12.3 101.1 56.2 48.5 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.0 15.2 15.3 111.1 61.9 50.8 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.5 14.6 102.8 58.9 49.9 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.3 12.7 93.6 53.8 46.5 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.6 13.9 103.0 59.1 50.2 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.0 13.0 97.8 60.9 47.6 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 19.4 17.9 115.1 65.8 50.7 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.8 10.0 12.0 102.0 58.2 48.9 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------