***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.8 9.3 68.3 45.3 40.3 3.8 8.1 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.9 8.3 68.5 46.8 39.4 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.0 8.6 64.9 43.5 38.6 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 7.2 9.6 67.6 46.4 39.7 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.5 9.5 66.7 45.1 40.1 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.0 9.0 68.4 49.0 41.9 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.1 8.4 70.0 46.6 40.7 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.7 9.5 10.4 69.0 44.0 39.9 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.6 9.7 65.1 44.1 39.1 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.5 10.5 69.0 44.4 40.3 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.1 9.3 67.9 45.9 40.3 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.1 9.0 67.2 44.8 39.4 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.9 9.3 67.8 44.2 40.9 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.3 10.8 11.0 66.6 41.2 38.5 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.8 4.0 8.8 63.2 49.1 37.0 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.0 68.4 46.6 41.3 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.6 8.5 72.3 47.1 41.5 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.7 11.3 71.3 44.6 41.0 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.6 8.3 66.3 44.8 38.2 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.6 14.1 71.2 46.0 41.0 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.1 9.3 66.3 44.0 39.7 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.9 8.8 71.1 46.2 40.2 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.7 8.7 64.9 41.7 37.4 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.3 6.9 10.0 66.3 42.8 38.6 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.9 5.6 10.5 69.9 44.2 41.1 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.9 9.4 67.4 46.2 40.2 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.3 10.0 70.0 44.8 41.1 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.0 8.8 67.1 49.0 39.6 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 9.0 12.3 72.8 45.0 41.3 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.2 8.5 67.2 45.8 39.1 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------