***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.2 9.0 71.3 46.1 38.8 1.8 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.9 8.1 70.5 47.4 38.5 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.7 8.5 67.5 46.6 37.7 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.7 11.6 12.2 79.2 50.7 42.1 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.0 3.9 9.7 65.8 43.1 37.5 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.1 6.8 10.6 74.0 48.8 39.6 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.8 8.0 71.6 48.0 38.5 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 6.3 8.1 9.9 62.5 43.9 36.6 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.6 8.9 61.4 41.4 36.0 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.5 9.6 62.9 43.0 36.8 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.6 6.9 9.5 63.7 43.2 36.7 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.7 9.9 9.4 62.6 44.4 35.8 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.9 6.9 10.4 68.2 43.1 36.9 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.2 7.8 10.3 64.3 44.3 37.6 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.7 13.3 12.6 81.9 55.9 42.3 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.6 10.2 68.8 44.3 38.1 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.6 8.5 73.5 49.2 40.8 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.4 7.4 10.2 65.5 44.0 38.2 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.6 8.2 69.3 47.4 38.0 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 9.0 12.8 66.7 43.1 38.7 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.8 9.0 64.9 44.0 36.9 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.0 9.3 74.9 51.4 40.7 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.1 8.8 68.8 47.4 38.1 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.8 8.5 9.5 64.1 43.5 37.3 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.7 10.5 72.2 46.0 39.2 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.6 11.9 74.8 47.6 38.6 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.4 70.8 45.6 38.3 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.5 10.7 12.1 80.5 52.9 42.4 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.1 11.8 11.0 66.7 44.1 38.6 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.5 8.1 69.6 47.9 37.6 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------