***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.8 34.7 33.7 30.3 3.9 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.5 1.6 3.5 36.4 34.9 30.2 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.1 2.6 3.3 30.6 33.0 27.8 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 15.1 12.8 10.8 72.6 51.0 47.3 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.3 4.6 3.9 29.9 33.2 30.0 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.5 11.5 5.9 42.8 40.3 38.1 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.0 3.9 41.4 37.4 32.8 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.0 5.1 4.9 33.3 33.9 30.5 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.5 0.6 3.4 28.1 31.1 27.9 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.3 3.4 24.5 30.0 26.2 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.1 3.9 4.1 30.7 33.8 30.8 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.1 7.0 5.7 41.0 38.4 35.1 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.9 8.3 6.5 43.6 41.4 37.4 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.7 3.0 3.3 25.7 29.2 24.0 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 9.5 11.5 13.3 91.8 62.2 56.2 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.0 7.8 5.7 39.8 37.9 35.8 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.6 2.2 3.8 40.8 36.0 31.6 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 3.3 2.9 3.3 23.5 29.2 25.3 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 3.3 3.4 34.0 34.1 28.9 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 3.3 3.5 4.5 25.0 28.9 26.6 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.8 2.1 3.6 30.3 30.6 28.4 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.2 3.6 3.9 40.1 34.1 29.7 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.5 3.4 32.0 33.4 27.6 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.0 3.1 24.8 30.2 25.5 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.8 2.9 4.7 35.9 35.5 31.3 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 16.0 13.6 9.8 67.2 47.6 45.0 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.3 4.1 35.6 35.4 31.1 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 10.6 10.5 9.9 70.7 52.9 48.6 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 5.6 5.0 3.6 23.9 28.4 25.4 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.5 3.4 34.6 34.5 29.6 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------