***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 8.8 10.9 10.2 3.4 90.0 86.1 6.2 7.0 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 8.5 9.6 10.2 3.4 89.0 86.3 5.5 6.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 9.9 10.6 10.7 3.4 89.1 85.7 7.0 7.8 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 3.7 4.2 6.8 2.8 83.8 80.4 1.4 2.5 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 9.2 10.7 8.7 3.2 87.4 83.6 7.2 7.9 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.9 7.9 3.0 86.9 81.9 6.5 7.2 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 8.5 9.6 10.1 3.4 89.6 86.8 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 3.2 4.4 8.1 3.0 86.1 81.6 0.4 1.4 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 9.9 11.7 9.6 3.3 87.7 84.0 7.8 8.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 9.2 11.1 8.9 3.3 87.0 82.9 6.7 7.3 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 9.5 11.5 9.1 3.3 87.6 83.7 6.9 8.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 9.6 10.9 8.5 3.1 87.8 82.9 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 9.2 11.0 8.8 3.3 87.9 83.6 7.4 8.0 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 10.2 11.2 10.1 3.3 87.1 82.5 6.7 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 7.5 8.3 8.1 2.8 87.3 81.6 5.8 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 9.9 11.8 8.7 3.3 87.4 83.9 8.0 8.5 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 8.0 8.8 9.8 3.2 88.9 86.0 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 7.6 8.2 8.8 3.2 86.3 82.0 5.1 5.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 8.7 9.6 10.4 3.4 88.4 85.7 6.1 6.9 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 6.5 7.1 7.2 3.0 84.4 81.2 3.3 5.2 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 9.5 11.1 10.1 3.3 88.3 84.1 7.0 7.8 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 8.4 9.1 9.9 3.2 87.7 84.7 5.7 6.2 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 8.9 9.7 10.6 3.3 87.7 84.4 5.8 6.7 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 10.5 11.4 10.1 3.4 87.2 83.5 7.4 8.6 10.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 8.5 9.7 8.9 3.2 88.3 84.1 6.1 6.7 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 8.9 10.1 7.9 2.9 89.4 83.7 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 9.9 10.9 9.8 3.3 90.0 85.9 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 8.3 9.1 7.5 2.8 84.6 80.3 5.9 6.7 7.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.7 8.3 3.2 85.9 81.6 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 8.6 9.4 10.3 3.5 89.4 86.9 5.8 6.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------