***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.0 8.0 2.3 70.7 67.3 4.9 6.8 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.6 7.9 2.2 70.9 66.6 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.8 9.1 8.4 2.3 70.6 66.6 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 4.3 4.9 5.9 2.6 74.8 70.1 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 8.9 9.8 6.7 2.4 71.6 68.2 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.0 8.8 6.1 2.0 65.7 64.7 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.4 7.8 2.2 70.5 66.5 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 2.0 3.3 6.3 2.2 68.3 66.9 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 10.0 9.6 7.4 2.3 68.9 66.8 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 7.5 9.1 6.9 2.3 67.9 66.5 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 9.1 9.6 6.8 2.3 70.2 67.7 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.4 10.0 6.6 2.2 69.0 67.0 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.8 9.8 6.2 2.1 68.0 66.3 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 7.4 9.3 7.7 2.1 66.3 64.3 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 7.5 8.3 6.6 2.6 73.9 69.9 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 9.4 10.9 6.5 2.3 70.3 67.5 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.7 6.9 7.6 2.1 69.9 65.7 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.1 6.9 2.2 66.7 65.0 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.0 8.1 2.3 70.6 66.4 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.5 5.4 2.0 69.2 66.1 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 8.8 9.3 7.9 2.3 69.0 66.4 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.5 7.7 2.1 69.6 65.6 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.0 8.4 2.2 68.9 65.7 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 8.1 10.0 7.7 2.3 67.1 65.3 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.3 8.1 6.8 2.3 71.2 67.7 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 7.4 8.9 6.1 2.1 70.7 67.5 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.4 9.4 7.6 2.2 70.6 66.9 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.9 9.0 6.3 2.6 73.5 69.6 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.6 6.3 2.0 66.2 64.5 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.9 8.0 2.3 71.2 67.2 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------