***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 11.0 12.4 11.5 4.3 88.2 83.0 6.2 8.4 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.7 11.5 4.4 88.9 84.7 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 11.8 12.5 12.0 4.4 87.1 82.5 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.7 7.6 3.3 79.6 75.2 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 11.5 12.7 9.9 4.1 84.7 80.1 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 10.3 11.8 9.3 4.2 85.2 81.4 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 10.5 11.9 11.4 4.4 89.8 85.1 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 4.0 5.4 9.5 4.2 84.8 82.3 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 12.1 13.3 11.0 4.3 85.5 81.3 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 11.0 12.1 10.4 4.4 85.0 81.8 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 12.0 13.0 10.6 4.4 83.5 81.2 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 11.6 12.3 9.9 4.2 84.6 82.3 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 12.1 13.1 10.6 4.6 85.5 83.1 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 11.6 13.0 11.6 4.5 84.5 81.1 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.5 9.2 8.8 3.0 79.2 74.7 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 12.3 13.6 10.2 4.4 84.7 81.6 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 9.7 11.4 11.1 4.3 89.1 84.9 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 8.4 9.4 10.4 4.5 85.3 81.9 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 10.9 12.1 11.7 4.4 88.2 84.1 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.1 8.9 4.4 86.7 84.0 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 11.7 13.1 11.4 4.1 85.2 80.9 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.8 11.2 4.2 88.1 84.2 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 10.5 11.9 11.9 4.4 86.7 83.0 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.0 11.6 4.6 85.5 81.8 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.1 11.8 10.2 4.0 85.7 80.6 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 11.3 13.1 9.4 4.1 88.7 84.8 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 11.8 13.0 11.2 4.3 88.6 83.5 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.6 8.3 3.2 79.3 74.4 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 8.3 10.2 10.0 4.6 86.0 83.2 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 10.5 12.0 11.7 4.5 89.6 84.7 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------