***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 14.2 15.6 14.5 5.0 89.1 88.6 6.3 8.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.7 13.8 14.7 5.1 88.2 88.0 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 13.7 15.4 15.1 5.1 86.7 85.8 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 6.3 7.0 9.4 3.3 73.0 72.8 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 13.3 13.6 12.6 4.3 76.9 77.8 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 12.8 13.1 11.4 4.3 75.9 77.7 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 12.0 14.0 14.6 5.2 91.3 89.6 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.5 11.4 3.9 69.5 70.8 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 14.5 15.2 13.7 4.5 79.5 80.2 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 13.4 13.8 12.7 4.4 73.9 75.5 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 14.3 14.6 13.5 4.5 77.1 77.8 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.4 12.9 12.0 4.0 73.1 74.4 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 14.9 15.5 13.5 4.6 80.4 80.1 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 13.7 13.6 14.4 4.8 73.9 77.1 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 11.3 12.1 11.6 3.5 80.2 79.5 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 15.3 15.8 13.0 4.6 79.8 80.4 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 10.9 13.0 14.0 4.9 88.1 87.6 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 11.2 10.8 12.4 4.5 73.1 74.5 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.3 14.8 5.0 86.0 86.1 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 9.5 9.9 10.5 4.0 74.6 73.7 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 13.7 15.9 14.5 4.7 82.4 82.0 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 11.7 12.1 14.0 4.6 82.2 83.1 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 12.3 13.1 14.7 4.8 83.3 83.1 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 13.5 13.0 14.4 4.8 76.0 78.2 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 12.4 13.8 13.2 4.6 83.2 83.1 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 13.1 13.8 11.2 3.9 78.7 78.2 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 13.9 15.4 14.3 5.1 89.3 88.4 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 10.7 11.1 10.5 3.4 75.0 74.5 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 9.2 9.6 11.9 4.4 73.7 74.9 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 12.0 14.5 14.9 5.2 90.0 89.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------