***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.6 63.5 61.6 -2.4 0.1 1.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -0.6 1.0 0.9 1.5 59.6 61.1 -2.7 -1.2 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 1.5 2.6 1.2 1.7 66.5 64.1 -1.4 1.0 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -3.1 -3.4 -1.4 1.8 66.0 64.5 -6.2 -5.0 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 0.5 0.4 -1.0 1.8 64.6 63.6 -2.4 -0.2 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -1.1 -2.8 1.6 56.7 62.0 -3.6 -1.5 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -0.2 0.9 1.0 1.6 60.5 61.0 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.9 -4.7 -2.4 1.6 61.2 61.9 -7.7 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 0.7 1.4 -0.5 1.7 64.4 63.5 -1.9 0.3 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.5 -1.8 1.7 62.4 62.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 0.8 0.6 -1.5 1.7 63.4 63.2 -2.5 -0.5 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -0.7 -2.0 1.7 62.1 62.3 -3.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 -0.1 0.0 -2.4 1.6 61.3 61.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 0.3 1.3 -0.6 1.7 64.7 63.0 -1.3 -0.1 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 0.2 0.2 -0.3 1.8 68.0 64.8 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 1.1 0.9 -2.0 1.7 61.7 62.6 -2.0 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.5 57.5 59.8 -2.9 -0.8 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -1.1 -2.4 1.8 63.8 62.8 -3.5 -2.4 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 62.1 62.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.7 -3.7 -3.5 1.5 58.9 60.1 -7.1 -4.1 -3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 0.0 1.1 0.5 1.7 65.3 63.3 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 59.8 60.8 -2.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 -0.2 1.2 0.9 1.7 66.1 63.8 -1.7 -0.6 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 1.8 65.2 64.1 -2.1 -0.4 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.6 64.6 61.8 -2.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.1 -2.4 1.4 61.1 59.9 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 0.2 1.2 0.8 1.5 62.4 60.9 -2.5 -0.3 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 1.9 65.2 64.5 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -3.5 -2.6 -2.6 1.7 63.7 62.1 -6.0 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -0.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 61.9 62.1 -2.4 -1.0 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------