***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 4.4 5.9 6.1 4.3 88.9 83.9 0.2 1.0 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 3.9 5.1 5.6 4.2 88.3 84.5 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 5.3 7.4 5.9 4.2 88.8 84.3 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -0.4 1.3 3.0 3.9 87.0 80.7 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 2.7 5.3 4.2 4.2 87.4 82.5 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 1.9 4.6 1.9 4.1 89.7 83.4 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 3.2 4.7 5.5 4.1 88.2 82.8 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -1.7 -0.3 2.5 4.4 89.2 84.4 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 3.8 5.3 4.2 4.2 88.9 83.7 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 2.7 4.8 3.0 4.4 89.2 84.3 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 2.9 4.3 3.7 4.3 87.4 83.3 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 2.3 3.8 3.1 4.3 86.7 83.0 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 2.1 4.0 2.6 4.0 86.1 81.8 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 3.8 4.9 4.1 4.3 90.1 85.6 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 3.7 5.4 4.3 3.7 86.0 80.4 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 4.0 5.3 3.0 4.1 86.2 81.9 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 3.3 4.5 5.3 4.0 88.7 83.3 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 0.6 2.5 2.4 4.3 89.5 84.5 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 3.5 5.0 5.6 4.2 89.2 85.2 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 -0.3 0.7 1.8 4.5 89.5 85.1 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 3.1 5.5 5.2 4.1 88.2 82.9 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 3.1 4.7 5.4 4.0 90.4 84.9 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 3.5 5.6 5.4 4.2 90.3 85.9 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 2.8 4.6 3.8 4.2 89.7 84.5 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 3.7 6.0 5.2 4.2 88.5 83.1 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 2.4 4.4 2.8 4.2 88.1 83.4 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 4.7 6.9 5.8 4.3 88.7 82.8 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 2.2 3.8 3.2 3.8 86.0 80.0 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 1.1 3.0 2.1 4.5 90.1 85.4 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 3.9 5.5 5.8 4.2 88.7 84.5 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------