***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.3 9.6 6.3 99.2 97.6 -0.8 1.4 3.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.3 7.2 8.7 5.8 98.7 96.6 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 5.9 9.7 8.9 5.6 97.7 95.8 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 0.8 6.3 6.3 5.6 98.2 96.9 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.5 5.8 7.2 5.4 96.7 95.1 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.3 4.5 5.3 99.7 97.5 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.0 8.8 5.9 98.3 96.0 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -0.7 1.2 4.1 4.6 94.9 91.5 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 5.1 6.6 6.6 5.0 98.9 96.2 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 3.8 5.7 4.7 4.5 95.1 92.0 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 3.7 5.8 6.2 4.9 97.1 94.3 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 2.3 4.5 5.3 4.9 93.9 92.1 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.2 90.6 88.8 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 3.9 5.2 5.2 3.9 86.0 84.2 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.5 6.8 8.2 5.8 99.5 98.6 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 3.5 6.1 5.6 4.9 96.2 94.2 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 4.1 6.8 8.1 5.5 98.7 96.0 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 0.6 1.2 3.5 3.7 84.2 83.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.2 8.3 5.5 97.8 95.8 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -0.8 0.0 2.7 3.8 85.4 82.9 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.9 8.0 5.3 96.9 95.3 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 3.3 4.8 7.8 4.9 94.6 92.8 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.0 6.0 7.7 5.1 96.8 94.6 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 3.2 4.0 5.4 4.1 88.2 86.7 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.2 7.1 9.1 6.3 99.5 97.7 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 3.1 4.9 4.9 4.7 94.9 91.6 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.9 9.4 6.4 98.0 96.4 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 2.0 4.9 6.5 5.4 98.0 96.4 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 1.9 3.7 2.9 3.7 86.2 83.9 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 4.7 8.1 9.1 6.0 98.9 97.0 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------