***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 52.0 102.5 57.0 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 38.0 41.1 50.4 104.1 60.3 53.9 28.6 34.4 43.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 49.0 43.6 51.5 101.0 53.7 50.6 30.2 40.6 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 37.2 58.2 59.6 107.0 60.6 53.7 40.0 48.7 60.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 47.8 44.4 56.7 103.4 54.4 50.9 28.9 43.4 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 45.5 40.1 59.7 104.5 52.1 52.8 30.6 39.3 45.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 40.7 40.4 50.7 105.8 60.7 55.1 24.7 36.6 43.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 75.2 73.0 61.8 104.4 55.5 52.6 52.3 69.1 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 48.3 39.8 54.1 98.4 48.7 47.9 22.9 42.8 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 55.0 52.0 58.0 100.2 52.2 50.0 32.1 50.7 61.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 50.7 45.9 53.5 101.8 52.7 50.7 28.5 43.8 63.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 60.2 54.2 55.3 103.0 54.8 51.8 28.9 53.2 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 54.6 53.4 58.4 102.8 54.9 51.9 36.9 49.5 62.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 67.6 60.5 57.9 98.4 50.5 49.3 37.6 59.6 79.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 93.9 91.3 66.7 119.4 70.2 60.2 34.9 58.6 74.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 49.3 45.6 55.5 103.7 55.8 52.2 32.1 42.9 61.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 40.3 48.9 50.6 107.4 61.6 56.5 22.7 36.7 50.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 53.8 59.7 64.1 102.0 57.1 52.3 35.9 46.9 64.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 41.3 45.7 50.2 102.0 57.2 52.1 26.7 34.0 58.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 54.5 61.7 87.0 111.3 64.0 57.7 39.7 46.4 63.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.9 42.5 51.8 97.8 50.2 47.6 36.1 42.4 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 47.0 48.2 51.7 104.4 57.3 53.7 29.0 40.9 53.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 47.7 40.9 50.3 98.2 52.7 49.1 27.9 40.4 48.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 66.7 68.2 57.1 99.6 54.8 50.3 34.9 62.1 77.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 44.0 41.5 57.4 102.3 54.2 50.9 25.2 40.0 47.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 48.5 49.1 62.1 105.9 55.0 53.4 34.8 43.9 60.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 45.6 40.8 55.1 102.2 56.2 51.4 26.9 40.6 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 29.7 53.1 60.4 110.4 62.6 55.5 25.4 43.0 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 82.4 78.0 71.3 104.3 58.8 53.7 46.5 71.7 94.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 41.2 39.6 50.7 103.1 58.6 52.7 24.1 35.5 40.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------