***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 85.6 50.2 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.9 8.9 92.6 59.2 46.3 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.2 6.4 9.0 86.2 51.1 44.4 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.1 9.9 83.4 56.3 45.2 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 10.0 88.3 59.5 47.4 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.8 11.0 90.2 53.4 48.2 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.8 9.1 96.1 58.4 46.4 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.6 11.7 99.7 61.9 50.6 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 10.4 91.6 57.4 48.0 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.3 11.3 98.0 61.1 50.2 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.1 9.9 92.6 60.5 48.9 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.5 11.2 10.2 93.4 59.0 49.0 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.3 10.3 88.7 56.1 48.4 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.0 12.6 11.1 91.3 54.4 47.0 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.9 82.5 54.3 44.3 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.9 89.0 58.6 48.3 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.4 9.3 101.5 63.2 48.0 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.0 12.2 99.0 59.8 50.6 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 7.8 8.8 88.6 55.1 45.7 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.0 15.5 104.7 62.1 51.9 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.3 9.4 85.3 51.6 45.2 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.6 9.6 96.6 60.6 47.3 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.8 9.0 85.9 50.9 45.1 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.0 10.8 92.6 55.1 47.8 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.5 10.0 86.0 51.6 45.1 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.5 10.4 86.3 55.2 47.2 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.0 9.8 88.0 51.8 44.8 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.6 9.9 83.3 55.2 45.3 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 18.6 13.3 100.6 60.1 51.0 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.3 8.8 89.4 54.5 45.1 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------