***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.5 112.5 62.0 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.0 13.5 101.7 56.3 50.8 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.7 14.7 115.0 62.7 54.4 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.7 15.1 111.3 61.8 53.8 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.3 15.9 15.0 117.1 63.7 56.1 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.3 14.7 108.3 61.7 54.1 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.7 13.4 100.4 53.8 50.0 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 17.4 16.3 117.7 64.7 56.0 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.5 15.6 122.1 66.5 57.5 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.6 16.9 16.4 121.6 65.1 57.4 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.1 14.1 116.0 64.0 55.8 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.7 14.6 14.1 113.5 64.8 55.3 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.8 11.8 14.7 111.1 62.8 54.8 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.1 15.3 17.1 119.2 65.3 56.5 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.0 14.9 105.6 62.4 50.9 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 13.8 111.3 62.9 54.5 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.7 12.6 98.0 57.0 49.5 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.1 18.5 123.0 66.1 57.8 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.1 13.9 106.2 59.8 52.1 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.2 14.9 22.6 119.0 65.2 55.4 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.1 17.4 15.2 121.7 68.9 56.8 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.6 12.9 98.8 54.8 49.8 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.6 14.8 112.9 66.2 54.1 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.9 16.9 16.9 121.9 66.8 57.3 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.2 15.7 111.6 61.8 53.3 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.1 14.9 106.4 64.6 53.0 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 10.2 15.2 108.9 59.7 52.0 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.1 14.5 109.5 63.1 52.7 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 19.4 20.2 121.0 66.9 56.8 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.9 13.9 104.5 55.9 51.3 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------