***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 16.9 116.4 70.6 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.4 14.9 107.4 64.4 56.1 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.7 16.6 112.7 68.2 57.5 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 21.3 20.2 128.8 70.2 60.9 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.7 18.5 18.7 119.7 67.9 58.0 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.5 12.1 20.7 128.5 67.7 60.6 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.7 9.9 15.0 109.5 63.3 57.0 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.5 15.4 20.7 124.5 69.0 59.4 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.3 15.8 18.0 112.6 66.4 55.9 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.1 15.7 19.5 116.8 66.6 57.2 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.8 18.0 120.8 66.7 57.9 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.1 17.1 18.5 124.6 68.1 59.3 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.9 13.4 19.8 126.2 67.3 60.5 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.9 17.8 102.6 63.3 53.4 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 25.8 27.7 22.2 143.3 75.4 64.2 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 14.1 18.6 124.1 66.9 59.0 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.5 14.5 105.3 64.4 55.5 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 17.9 21.3 115.6 68.1 56.6 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.5 14.9 106.0 64.5 55.7 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 24.8 28.6 126.4 71.5 59.8 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.8 17.0 110.8 65.0 55.4 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.2 14.8 102.5 62.4 54.1 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.8 15.1 102.8 63.8 54.5 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.6 18.6 110.8 68.3 55.6 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.1 15.4 18.6 117.0 69.6 59.0 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.6 11.2 20.3 128.6 69.5 61.1 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.0 17.8 116.0 69.4 59.0 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.1 18.2 20.7 134.0 71.5 61.1 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 27.0 23.6 117.5 68.5 57.0 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.3 15.5 110.1 65.4 57.0 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------