***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 11.6 90.6 55.2 51.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.1 13.2 112.3 60.4 57.5 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.3 8.7 11.2 86.4 53.7 49.6 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 15.4 17.4 14.4 99.0 64.1 55.5 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.7 12.7 12.9 86.2 55.1 50.7 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 15.1 13.9 13.3 87.1 52.4 51.5 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.7 13.2 115.6 62.1 58.6 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 25.3 23.6 13.0 77.1 51.6 48.7 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.9 9.2 10.2 68.2 43.7 42.7 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.8 6.9 10.8 67.0 44.4 43.2 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 12.8 13.5 11.5 77.8 54.3 49.2 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 10.1 10.1 12.5 80.5 54.6 50.9 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 19.3 18.0 13.5 83.5 52.3 50.7 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.3 10.7 11.8 79.3 46.3 45.4 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 22.8 25.4 19.6 138.4 73.3 68.4 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.0 15.4 13.2 87.8 58.0 53.1 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.3 9.8 14.2 125.5 60.9 60.3 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.4 9.9 12.2 71.2 46.1 44.7 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.6 12.6 104.0 59.8 54.9 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 13.8 13.6 20.3 92.9 56.6 53.6 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.6 7.6 10.2 72.6 44.5 44.5 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.8 14.4 119.3 60.6 59.4 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.5 11.4 88.1 54.1 49.2 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.4 6.3 10.9 72.4 45.9 43.8 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 8.9 9.7 13.0 90.1 54.1 52.0 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 15.5 15.2 16.5 98.5 56.1 54.9 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.5 7.8 12.2 91.3 53.8 51.8 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.8 15.7 15.4 109.0 66.8 59.5 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 19.1 14.0 14.2 77.3 48.6 46.6 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.8 12.6 104.6 60.6 55.8 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------