***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 1.5 75.0 66.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.7 7.9 7.1 1.4 70.8 64.2 5.5 6.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.9 7.7 1.5 74.8 65.9 7.0 7.8 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.4 3.4 5.4 1.4 69.2 65.0 1.4 2.5 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.8 9.1 6.4 1.6 72.0 66.9 7.2 7.9 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.6 5.6 1.6 71.3 67.3 6.5 7.2 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.8 6.9 1.3 70.8 64.4 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.3 5.7 1.4 68.4 65.1 0.4 1.4 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.0 7.2 1.6 73.1 66.8 7.8 8.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.7 9.0 6.4 1.5 70.1 65.4 6.7 7.3 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.3 6.5 1.7 73.7 68.0 6.9 8.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 9.1 9.5 6.2 1.6 71.0 67.3 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.4 6.2 1.8 73.7 68.9 7.4 8.0 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.4 7.2 1.4 71.1 63.4 6.7 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.5 5.7 1.3 68.8 64.4 5.8 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.8 6.3 1.8 72.6 68.3 8.0 8.5 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.0 6.7 1.2 66.2 62.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.3 6.1 1.3 67.6 63.4 5.1 5.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.6 7.3 1.4 71.9 64.4 6.1 6.9 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.4 4.2 1.1 64.3 62.1 3.3 5.2 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 9.0 9.5 7.5 1.5 73.5 66.3 7.0 7.8 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.6 7.6 6.9 1.2 65.3 61.8 5.7 6.2 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.7 7.6 1.4 72.2 64.6 5.8 6.7 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 9.9 10.4 7.2 1.4 71.8 64.4 7.4 8.6 10.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.4 6.1 1.4 72.3 65.6 6.1 6.7 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.9 5.7 1.6 73.0 67.4 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.7 6.8 1.4 73.6 65.9 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.9 8.1 5.8 1.4 68.6 65.0 5.9 6.7 7.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.9 5.4 1.3 67.2 63.3 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.3 7.3 1.4 72.9 65.3 5.8 6.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------