***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 45.0 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.0 5.3 0.1 47.5 51.0 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.1 5.8 0.1 46.2 50.7 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.1 4.0 0.2 48.2 51.1 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.9 4.6 0.1 49.1 50.8 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.2 3.9 0.2 46.2 51.5 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.4 5.2 0.1 47.1 50.5 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.3 4.1 0.2 48.1 51.6 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.1 5.3 0.0 48.6 50.7 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.1 4.7 0.1 47.5 51.0 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.0 4.6 0.3 50.1 52.0 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.0 4.5 0.3 49.8 52.2 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.3 4.2 0.3 48.2 51.8 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.5 5.5 0.1 47.9 51.1 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.5 4.2 0.3 48.6 52.1 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.2 4.4 0.3 49.0 52.1 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 5.1 0.1 49.3 51.3 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.1 4.4 0.0 46.4 50.4 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.1 5.6 0.2 47.7 51.2 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.5 2.8 0.0 47.8 50.9 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.7 5.6 0.0 48.0 50.3 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.2 5.4 0.2 50.6 52.1 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 5.9 0.2 47.5 51.3 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.4 5.4 0.0 46.4 50.6 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.6 4.3 0.0 47.2 49.7 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.8 4.1 0.3 47.1 52.3 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 4.9 -0.1 45.8 49.3 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.9 4.2 0.3 48.5 51.8 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.8 3.7 0.0 47.6 50.6 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.4 5.5 0.1 45.6 50.8 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------