***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 4.6 79.1 79.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 11.6 11.8 11.7 4.5 78.6 79.5 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 13.7 14.6 12.5 4.8 80.3 80.2 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 7.0 6.8 8.9 3.7 71.9 72.3 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 13.8 13.6 11.2 4.8 76.7 78.1 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 13.1 12.9 10.1 4.8 74.1 76.5 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 11.8 12.5 11.6 4.5 80.4 80.0 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 5.2 4.9 9.9 4.5 74.2 76.3 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 14.6 16.1 12.4 5.2 81.0 80.7 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 14.0 14.4 11.2 4.9 77.5 78.4 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 14.8 14.6 11.5 5.1 77.1 79.1 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 14.1 14.1 10.6 4.7 75.3 77.7 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 14.8 15.4 11.4 5.2 79.5 80.9 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 14.1 14.5 12.4 5.0 78.8 79.0 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 11.2 10.8 9.6 3.2 69.6 70.3 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 15.3 15.6 11.3 5.1 78.2 79.6 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 10.7 10.9 11.1 4.2 78.6 78.6 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 11.8 11.9 10.9 4.9 77.3 77.9 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 12.0 12.2 12.0 4.6 79.1 79.7 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 9.4 9.9 8.5 4.1 74.9 75.2 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 13.8 14.6 12.4 4.8 79.4 79.3 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 11.4 11.8 11.3 4.2 78.5 78.5 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.6 12.4 4.7 80.5 80.1 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 13.7 14.9 12.3 5.1 79.9 79.7 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 12.5 12.3 10.8 4.3 76.5 76.6 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 13.2 12.6 9.7 4.2 73.3 75.7 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 13.7 14.2 11.6 4.5 78.7 78.7 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 10.9 10.8 9.6 3.6 71.6 71.9 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 9.6 10.5 10.3 4.9 79.4 79.3 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 11.9 12.4 12.0 4.6 80.0 80.2 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------