***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 43.7 46.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -2.3 -1.4 -0.5 41.2 46.6 -2.7 -1.2 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -1.1 0.2 -1.3 -0.3 43.4 48.2 -1.4 1.0 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -7.2 -5.5 -3.5 -0.2 45.2 50.0 -6.2 -5.0 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -0.8 -3.0 -0.2 42.3 49.0 -2.4 -0.2 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -2.8 -4.6 -0.3 42.2 48.1 -3.6 -1.5 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 39.0 46.0 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -8.1 -6.3 -4.0 -0.4 42.3 47.3 -7.7 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -0.9 -2.2 -0.3 43.4 48.0 -1.9 0.3 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -0.8 -3.3 -0.3 43.2 47.5 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -0.9 -3.2 -0.1 42.8 48.9 -2.5 -0.5 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -4.0 -2.8 -3.5 -0.3 41.5 47.9 -3.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -1.0 -3.8 -0.3 42.6 47.8 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -2.2 -1.0 -2.4 -0.3 45.2 48.1 -1.3 -0.1 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -0.8 -3.0 -0.1 45.9 50.9 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -0.9 -3.7 -0.2 42.6 48.8 -2.0 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 41.4 46.1 -2.9 -0.8 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -2.9 -3.8 -0.3 43.6 47.6 -3.5 -2.4 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -0.1 -1.4 -1.4 -0.4 42.3 47.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -7.6 -5.1 -4.9 -0.5 44.8 46.2 -7.1 -4.1 -3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -0.8 -1.5 -0.3 43.9 48.1 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -1.9 -1.4 -0.5 42.1 46.8 -2.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 44.3 48.0 -1.7 -0.6 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -1.4 -2.5 -0.2 44.3 48.7 -2.1 -0.4 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -0.8 -2.7 -0.5 41.9 47.8 -2.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -1.5 -3.7 -0.4 40.4 47.6 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -1.1 -1.9 -0.6 42.7 46.8 -2.5 -0.3 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -1.9 -3.3 0.0 46.2 50.8 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -6.4 -4.4 -4.2 -0.3 45.3 47.3 -6.0 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -1.2 -1.3 -0.4 41.3 46.8 -2.4 -1.0 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------