***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 3.3 2.2 74.0 69.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.2 2.6 1.8 70.7 66.3 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.6 2.9 2.2 74.2 69.1 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.2 1.4 3.0 75.8 74.9 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.9 74.1 73.2 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 1.7 2.6 0.5 3.3 80.1 76.3 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.8 68.9 65.9 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -2.2 -1.9 0.8 2.9 73.0 72.0 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.6 71.3 70.5 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 2.5 2.8 1.3 2.8 72.0 70.8 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 2.7 3.4 1.6 3.1 74.9 74.5 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 1.9 2.2 1.5 3.2 75.4 74.4 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 2.0 2.5 1.2 3.2 76.7 75.0 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.2 1.6 2.0 69.5 66.4 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 3.2 4.2 1.8 2.9 77.5 75.7 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 3.7 4.7 1.3 3.2 78.1 75.7 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 2.4 1.6 2.2 1.5 66.5 63.2 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.6 71.3 68.7 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.2 2.6 1.9 72.2 66.9 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -1.1 -0.6 2.4 67.1 67.0 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 2.8 3.6 2.8 2.4 72.8 70.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 2.3 1.7 2.1 1.3 66.5 62.4 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 2.7 3.5 2.5 1.9 73.0 67.4 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.4 2.4 1.7 2.3 72.3 68.7 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 3.5 3.9 2.0 2.6 74.9 72.2 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 2.1 3.3 1.4 3.2 81.0 75.5 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 4.1 5.2 2.7 2.3 73.9 70.0 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.6 1.5 3.1 77.1 75.6 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 0.5 0.6 0.2 2.5 69.1 67.6 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 3.4 4.3 2.8 1.9 72.6 67.4 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------