***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 5.0 80.5 81.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 4.1 4.4 6.0 4.8 80.1 81.0 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 5.7 6.5 6.3 4.9 82.1 82.8 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 0.6 0.2 3.2 3.9 73.7 75.6 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 79.8 80.0 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 2.9 3.6 2.0 4.0 82.7 81.3 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 4.2 4.6 6.0 4.9 80.6 81.0 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -0.8 -0.1 3.3 5.0 84.3 84.4 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 4.9 5.4 5.0 4.7 82.6 82.4 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 3.6 4.8 4.0 4.9 82.6 82.1 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.6 82.4 81.7 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 2.2 2.7 3.8 4.9 84.8 84.8 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 2.9 3.5 3.4 4.5 81.5 81.3 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 3.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 81.7 82.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.8 77.3 77.6 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 3.2 3.8 3.4 4.3 79.8 80.3 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 3.9 4.2 5.5 4.6 79.5 80.2 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 0.6 0.9 3.2 4.9 80.1 81.1 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 3.7 4.4 6.0 4.8 81.3 82.0 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -0.7 -0.3 1.8 5.0 79.3 81.2 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 4.7 5.4 5.9 4.7 81.0 81.4 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 3.0 3.4 5.5 4.5 78.0 80.1 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 3.8 4.8 5.9 4.9 84.7 83.8 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 3.2 3.5 4.7 4.9 82.4 82.1 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 4.0 4.5 5.5 4.8 79.8 80.8 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 3.0 3.7 3.6 4.7 84.9 85.1 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 4.7 5.3 6.1 4.9 80.5 81.3 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 1.7 1.6 3.3 3.6 72.3 74.3 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 2.0 2.7 2.7 5.1 81.6 82.3 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 4.5 5.0 6.3 4.9 80.8 81.8 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------