***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 24.8 36.5 43.9 93.9 48.1 47.6 22.9 37.0 48.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 26.3 33.2 41.4 94.6 48.8 49.0 29.2 33.5 46.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 31.2 41.1 43.7 93.5 47.1 47.3 30.3 44.5 56.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 35.4 48.0 49.9 94.5 48.8 47.1 41.6 48.0 62.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 32.5 45.3 50.1 97.7 52.0 49.4 30.4 43.9 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 48.1 38.8 49.9 94.8 46.1 47.3 33.5 39.5 47.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.9 34.3 40.9 93.6 49.4 48.2 28.6 34.7 44.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 45.0 58.1 46.2 85.8 42.2 42.4 50.9 66.4 91.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.3 34.9 47.7 92.0 46.7 46.5 23.5 41.5 57.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 35.8 43.7 48.2 89.3 43.9 44.8 33.2 50.8 57.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 31.8 38.9 45.2 92.4 46.4 46.0 30.0 44.8 64.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 34.3 37.9 42.5 87.0 42.0 42.8 31.0 47.9 81.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 38.1 44.5 47.8 92.7 44.0 45.7 36.2 50.8 64.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 72.1 56.4 49.0 90.2 42.6 45.2 40.0 65.8 79.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 69.1 53.2 53.0 96.0 48.8 48.4 42.6 55.4 76.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 30.3 40.7 47.6 96.7 47.5 48.1 32.9 43.5 65.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.3 41.3 40.6 95.2 55.2 49.6 24.7 34.5 50.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 36.6 40.8 49.6 85.2 40.2 42.2 36.8 49.1 63.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 29.3 35.4 42.3 95.2 48.1 49.1 30.1 36.2 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 37.3 41.2 55.4 79.2 37.0 38.6 39.8 47.6 64.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.6 44.4 46.6 94.5 48.0 48.0 36.1 45.2 59.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 46.9 42.9 42.7 96.5 54.2 50.5 31.8 38.1 54.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 47.5 41.0 43.7 94.1 47.5 47.7 31.0 41.5 56.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 41.8 48.6 47.2 88.7 43.7 44.3 37.4 62.1 78.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 44.2 39.9 50.5 96.3 50.5 48.5 31.4 39.8 49.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 35.1 36.4 44.4 83.2 40.2 40.4 34.9 47.1 60.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.1 36.7 46.6 93.3 47.7 46.9 28.0 38.3 55.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.3 44.1 50.5 96.1 50.0 48.0 29.8 44.1 54.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 50.6 56.7 50.6 80.9 37.8 39.6 50.5 66.9 100.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 25.5 35.5 41.9 94.3 47.8 48.4 28.2 35.5 42.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------