***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.4 10.1 93.0 52.1 45.8 1.6 4.3 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 5.2 9.4 89.5 56.6 45.2 2.0 3.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.1 10.7 98.1 58.8 47.1 2.2 5.8 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.3 11.9 11.4 93.0 59.1 44.6 5.6 10.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.6 13.2 12.7 106.3 59.2 50.9 2.0 4.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.9 12.9 95.8 61.7 51.7 2.4 5.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.3 9.2 87.2 54.7 45.3 1.9 5.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.5 12.9 99.9 60.1 52.0 6.6 10.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.0 10.0 12.8 107.0 60.2 49.8 1.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 13.7 13.3 105.3 61.8 51.7 2.8 8.1 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.6 11.7 99.4 58.8 50.4 2.6 6.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.4 11.7 97.8 58.0 51.2 3.3 8.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.2 12.2 95.3 59.0 50.6 3.6 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.0 12.9 98.0 61.1 49.8 3.1 8.3 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.0 12.7 96.0 61.7 47.8 5.0 7.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.7 11.8 98.4 59.8 50.8 1.7 5.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.6 9.1 88.1 56.3 45.1 2.1 5.1 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.2 13.9 101.7 57.6 51.3 5.4 8.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.8 6.4 9.9 92.5 57.4 46.0 1.0 3.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 10.5 15.2 90.4 55.0 50.1 4.2 8.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.4 11.7 103.9 60.5 48.2 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.2 9.9 89.6 57.4 45.7 1.4 4.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.1 6.2 10.7 95.4 57.3 47.4 1.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.5 12.8 101.5 58.8 50.2 2.9 7.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.3 11.6 95.4 55.4 46.9 2.7 5.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.4 11.0 81.9 55.1 47.0 3.0 6.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.7 90.1 52.6 45.6 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.0 12.3 97.6 62.2 47.5 4.0 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.5 14.1 93.6 56.7 50.1 7.3 12.9 28.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.1 9.7 91.2 57.5 45.8 2.0 3.5 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------