***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 11.6 12.4 15.8 123.1 60.0 61.7 4.6 10.6 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 9.8 14.9 13.7 120.7 64.4 61.8 4.5 8.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 10.1 9.8 14.4 114.8 59.9 60.1 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 15.1 19.5 17.0 114.7 62.1 60.6 5.3 13.4 22.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.6 14.7 16.9 117.2 59.8 59.0 5.3 12.4 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 15.4 20.4 16.1 113.5 59.7 57.9 5.4 14.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 9.6 14.6 14.4 129.1 65.6 63.6 3.1 8.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 17.9 14.2 12.0 82.3 48.4 47.6 7.1 14.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 11.6 11.0 14.4 101.4 52.7 53.9 2.1 10.4 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.8 10.7 13.4 91.6 50.5 50.5 5.2 10.6 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.5 16.2 13.9 101.6 55.5 54.4 4.4 12.8 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 15.7 13.9 11.6 85.2 51.2 48.7 3.5 13.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 19.3 20.8 15.3 105.6 55.7 54.0 6.5 16.9 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 18.6 19.2 14.3 102.3 54.7 54.5 7.8 17.0 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 12.2 16.2 17.8 117.4 64.0 63.5 2.6 8.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 15.0 20.6 16.1 116.7 59.8 58.4 7.9 13.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 10.3 15.5 13.8 123.3 66.3 63.2 5.7 8.8 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 14.7 10.5 12.9 84.5 46.5 48.4 6.4 12.9 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.9 14.7 13.5 114.7 63.1 60.4 6.9 10.5 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 15.8 11.8 13.7 75.6 45.3 44.9 6.4 12.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 10.1 12.7 15.3 112.2 59.3 58.5 5.5 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 13.0 18.3 13.5 113.2 63.6 59.9 6.8 11.7 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 11.5 11.8 13.4 107.3 58.6 58.0 5.3 9.7 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 16.1 15.4 13.5 96.5 52.4 53.2 2.6 14.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.7 12.7 18.5 126.5 63.0 63.1 3.5 10.0 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 16.8 17.3 14.3 94.0 53.9 52.0 5.9 14.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 9.2 16.1 17.1 127.2 62.9 63.0 2.6 8.1 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 11.8 16.5 16.4 114.6 61.9 60.9 2.6 10.4 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 21.7 9.7 12.4 77.4 44.8 45.8 8.6 17.0 33.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 9.7 12.0 14.1 121.9 62.5 61.9 4.6 7.9 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------