***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.8 7.9 1.2 69.6 64.7 6.3 7.2 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.3 7.9 1.4 70.6 67.2 5.9 6.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 9.3 10.0 8.1 1.4 71.8 66.3 7.0 8.1 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.4 5.7 1.1 63.6 63.0 1.5 2.7 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.3 9.2 6.5 1.3 66.9 64.9 7.4 8.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.1 5.9 1.3 65.3 64.3 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.8 8.2 7.8 1.4 69.9 67.2 5.7 6.7 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 2.7 2.6 6.3 1.6 71.3 67.9 0.5 1.4 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 9.6 10.2 7.4 1.4 68.7 66.1 7.9 8.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 8.8 9.4 6.9 1.6 70.4 67.2 6.6 7.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.5 6.6 1.4 68.4 66.3 6.9 8.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.8 6.5 1.5 70.4 66.8 7.5 8.0 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.5 9.6 6.3 1.3 69.5 65.0 7.5 8.2 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.0 11.0 8.0 1.8 75.0 68.9 6.7 8.2 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.3 6.1 1.0 61.6 62.5 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.9 6.3 1.3 67.3 65.0 8.2 8.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.5 7.7 1.5 70.5 68.0 5.4 6.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 7.1 7.9 6.9 1.7 72.3 67.8 5.3 5.6 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.9 8.1 1.5 71.8 67.6 6.1 7.1 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.8 5.4 1.7 72.1 69.6 3.5 5.4 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.7 7.7 1.3 68.6 64.9 7.1 7.8 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.3 7.9 1.6 71.4 68.7 5.9 6.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.4 9.0 8.3 1.6 73.6 68.4 6.1 7.1 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.8 7.8 1.7 74.0 67.8 7.5 8.5 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.3 8.1 6.6 1.2 65.8 63.9 6.3 6.9 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 8.6 8.6 6.0 1.3 69.0 65.2 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.5 7.4 1.2 68.8 64.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.4 6.0 1.1 62.8 62.7 6.3 6.9 8.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 5.8 6.4 6.4 1.7 73.6 69.2 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 8.1 8.5 8.0 1.4 71.2 66.6 6.0 6.8 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------