***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 4.9 0.6 52.9 56.4 2.9 6.0 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.4 4.8 0.7 55.2 56.9 3.4 5.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.7 5.1 0.7 53.8 57.0 3.8 6.0 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.5 0.5 3.0 0.6 53.5 58.2 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.8 3.5 0.7 54.6 58.1 3.4 6.3 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.0 3.1 0.6 54.8 58.0 3.0 5.2 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 5.1 4.8 0.7 55.6 57.2 2.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.7 1.2 3.5 0.9 57.6 60.5 -1.8 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.5 4.4 0.7 56.2 57.9 3.8 7.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.5 4.0 0.9 57.3 59.5 2.7 5.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.5 3.6 0.7 57.6 58.9 3.1 6.3 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.3 3.6 0.8 57.7 59.4 3.1 5.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.8 3.3 0.7 57.1 58.1 3.5 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 4.9 1.0 58.1 59.7 3.8 6.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.2 3.3 0.6 56.1 57.9 3.5 4.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.5 3.2 0.6 55.8 58.3 3.7 6.9 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.8 4.8 0.8 56.6 57.6 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.6 4.0 1.0 58.4 60.4 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.9 5.0 0.7 54.6 57.0 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 5.1 3.3 2.8 1.0 56.9 61.6 1.6 2.9 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.3 4.7 0.6 54.7 57.2 3.7 6.4 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.5 4.9 0.8 57.1 58.0 3.7 5.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 5.1 0.8 54.6 57.6 3.9 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.3 4.8 0.9 57.2 59.2 3.9 6.6 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.0 3.6 0.6 53.6 57.6 2.3 5.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.4 3.2 0.6 57.1 57.8 4.0 4.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.4 4.4 0.6 53.9 57.1 3.3 6.2 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.6 5.8 3.2 0.6 55.2 57.9 3.7 4.8 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.0 3.6 1.0 58.0 61.0 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.9 4.9 0.7 53.9 56.6 2.9 5.3 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------