***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.8 6.8 0.6 54.0 56.3 4.4 7.3 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.9 6.7 0.8 56.5 58.2 3.0 6.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.9 7.9 6.9 0.7 54.6 56.6 4.4 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.9 4.6 0.5 54.1 55.7 -0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.0 5.2 0.5 52.2 55.4 4.7 6.9 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.7 4.8 0.6 50.4 55.3 4.8 6.7 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.7 6.6 0.8 57.1 57.8 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.3 5.0 0.7 53.6 56.7 0.7 1.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.1 6.1 0.6 52.6 55.8 5.7 7.9 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.0 5.6 0.7 53.3 56.6 4.8 7.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.7 5.2 0.5 51.5 55.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.6 5.2 0.6 51.5 55.2 6.2 7.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.5 5.0 0.5 45.6 55.0 6.3 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.6 6.7 1.0 55.5 58.6 4.4 7.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.8 4.7 0.5 50.8 55.7 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 5.0 0.5 49.4 54.6 6.1 8.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.1 6.6 1.0 58.0 59.1 3.6 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 7.7 6.4 5.7 0.9 55.4 58.3 3.0 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.9 56.6 58.3 3.3 7.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.2 6.3 4.4 1.1 55.9 60.6 1.9 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.2 6.4 0.6 51.9 55.7 4.5 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.9 6.8 1.1 59.3 59.4 3.6 6.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.1 7.1 0.9 55.4 58.4 3.6 6.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.9 8.9 6.6 0.9 54.9 57.5 6.4 8.3 9.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.6 5.4 0.7 54.9 56.7 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.3 4.8 0.6 50.3 55.0 5.3 7.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 7.8 6.2 0.7 55.1 57.0 4.7 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 4.7 0.5 50.7 55.0 4.2 6.4 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 7.3 5.9 5.3 1.1 56.6 60.0 2.1 5.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.2 6.8 0.8 56.1 57.5 3.4 6.4 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------