***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.9 9.8 8.4 1.3 62.6 61.6 6.0 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 10.3 8.8 8.4 1.4 62.9 62.8 6.3 8.0 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.9 8.5 1.4 63.4 61.9 7.7 9.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.4 6.2 1.2 59.6 60.0 1.0 4.0 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.9 6.9 1.3 63.1 61.3 8.2 9.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.2 6.1 1.1 57.5 59.1 7.2 8.0 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.0 8.2 1.4 62.0 62.8 6.5 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 3.7 2.8 6.4 1.4 63.3 62.4 0.5 2.1 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.6 7.6 1.3 63.6 61.7 8.2 10.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.5 7.0 1.4 63.5 61.9 7.3 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.3 6.8 1.3 61.8 61.3 8.2 9.9 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.1 6.7 1.3 62.1 61.7 8.1 9.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.3 6.5 1.2 59.6 60.4 7.7 9.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.9 8.1 1.5 64.1 62.1 7.2 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.0 6.3 1.0 57.4 58.1 5.7 7.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.5 6.5 1.2 58.7 60.4 8.4 10.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.8 8.3 8.1 1.4 64.8 63.0 5.6 7.2 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.8 7.0 1.4 64.7 62.2 4.4 7.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.4 8.5 1.5 63.9 62.9 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 8.1 8.3 5.5 1.5 67.3 63.7 3.0 5.9 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.3 11.2 8.1 1.3 63.2 61.4 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 10.2 8.9 8.3 1.5 66.1 63.3 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.4 8.7 1.5 65.1 62.8 6.9 8.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.2 10.8 7.9 1.4 63.7 61.8 7.6 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.8 7.1 1.3 62.3 61.8 7.1 8.9 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.1 6.3 1.2 58.2 61.1 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.0 11.0 7.8 1.4 63.0 62.2 7.3 9.3 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.1 6.3 1.0 57.3 58.7 6.4 7.7 9.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.1 6.4 1.5 65.5 62.6 3.9 5.9 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 10.2 8.9 8.5 1.4 61.5 62.4 6.2 8.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------