***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9.3 10.8 11.5 2.3 66.1 66.7 6.7 8.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.5 10.7 11.7 2.7 70.9 70.1 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 13.1 11.1 12.1 2.8 69.3 69.4 7.0 10.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 5.6 5.9 8.9 2.2 66.9 66.3 1.8 2.7 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 12.6 10.2 10.5 2.7 67.9 68.3 7.7 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 11.3 11.6 9.6 2.7 68.7 69.6 6.9 8.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 11.5 10.6 11.4 2.7 71.1 69.8 6.4 8.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 4.7 4.0 10.3 3.3 70.0 72.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 14.2 12.3 11.7 3.0 70.2 70.3 7.6 10.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.4 11.5 11.1 3.3 69.7 70.8 7.3 9.7 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.8 13.0 10.9 3.2 70.6 71.1 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.7 12.7 10.6 3.2 69.9 72.4 7.4 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 12.4 14.4 10.6 2.9 69.0 70.1 7.5 9.0 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 14.7 13.1 12.4 3.7 72.7 73.2 8.0 11.1 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 10.3 10.5 10.0 2.1 68.6 68.3 5.8 8.5 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.6 10.5 3.0 69.5 70.5 8.1 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.4 11.3 2.7 71.6 70.5 6.3 8.5 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 11.3 10.7 10.8 3.3 69.4 69.9 6.1 7.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.2 11.4 12.0 2.9 71.5 71.2 6.3 9.4 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 10.0 9.7 9.0 3.1 70.0 71.0 3.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 13.2 11.3 11.8 2.7 67.9 67.9 7.4 10.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.6 11.7 11.7 2.9 72.6 71.8 5.9 9.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.1 12.3 3.2 72.4 73.0 6.3 9.1 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.0 12.7 12.0 3.4 70.2 71.1 7.9 10.4 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 8.8 9.5 10.3 2.1 66.1 64.8 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 47 53 100 11.5 11.6 9.7 2.7 67.8 70.3 6.9 8.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 9.9 10.2 11.0 2.3 66.6 66.3 7.9 9.3 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 10.7 10.7 9.7 2.3 67.6 67.6 6.2 9.6 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 10.0 9.8 10.2 3.3 70.3 70.8 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 11.4 10.6 11.7 2.7 70.8 69.6 6.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------