***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 2.2 2.5 2.7 1.4 71.0 68.3 -0.1 1.1 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.5 73.1 69.9 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.4 73.1 69.5 1.3 2.4 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 -2.2 -2.1 0.1 1.5 73.2 70.7 -3.7 -2.7 -2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 1.4 1.8 0.5 1.5 75.6 70.3 -0.7 0.3 1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 0.7 1.1 -0.9 1.6 77.0 72.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 73.7 69.9 -0.5 0.5 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -3.5 -3.3 -0.4 1.6 74.2 71.0 -5.5 -4.5 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.4 74.9 69.8 0.1 1.3 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 1.4 1.9 0.2 1.6 73.3 70.0 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 1.3 1.5 0.3 1.5 75.1 71.3 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.5 73.9 70.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 1.2 1.5 -0.3 1.5 74.3 70.9 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.7 75.4 72.5 0.5 1.1 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 1.6 1.8 0.8 1.5 74.4 70.8 -0.1 0.3 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 2.0 2.1 -0.1 1.5 75.3 71.6 0.0 0.8 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 1.4 1.6 2.5 1.6 74.3 70.6 -0.7 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 1.6 71.7 69.6 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.5 73.2 70.6 -0.2 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 1.7 75.0 71.0 -5.2 -4.0 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.4 72.8 68.7 -0.3 0.7 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 1.4 1.6 2.4 1.6 76.0 71.5 -0.8 0.5 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.6 74.2 72.0 -0.2 0.4 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 73.1 70.7 -0.2 0.4 1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.5 72.9 70.0 -0.4 0.9 1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 1.0 1.5 -0.1 1.4 72.8 70.4 -1.1 -0.1 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 72.8 69.6 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.5 73.4 70.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.9 1.6 73.3 70.2 -2.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.5 2.6 1.5 72.9 69.4 -0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------