***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 -3.4 0.7 -0.1 0.3 55.9 52.9 -1.8 0.4 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -3.7 0.7 -0.2 0.5 57.1 53.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -1.4 1.4 -0.4 0.3 51.6 52.9 -1.0 1.4 2.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -4.2 -4.4 -2.6 0.7 52.2 57.2 -6.2 -4.8 -3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.4 -2.3 0.5 48.0 55.7 -2.0 -0.4 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.6 -3.5 0.6 47.4 55.7 -3.8 -1.3 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -3.6 1.4 -0.2 0.5 60.9 54.6 -2.4 -0.3 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -5.0 -6.1 -3.1 0.6 45.1 55.1 -6.8 -5.4 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.4 -1.6 0.4 46.7 54.7 -2.2 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 0.0 -1.1 -2.6 0.5 44.8 54.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -1.0 -2.5 0.5 45.0 55.2 -2.2 -0.7 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -1.6 -2.8 0.5 44.7 54.1 -3.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -1.1 -3.1 0.5 47.8 54.0 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.5 -1.6 0.5 49.0 55.4 -1.0 0.6 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -2.8 -0.4 -1.9 0.8 55.4 58.1 -2.5 -0.7 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.9 -3.0 0.5 45.6 54.7 -1.8 0.0 1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -3.9 0.2 -0.1 0.6 56.3 54.1 -2.5 -0.6 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -2.3 -3.1 0.6 44.6 55.2 -3.5 -2.2 -1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -3.8 -0.1 -0.4 0.4 54.0 53.1 -1.9 -0.4 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -3.8 -4.1 -4.0 0.7 50.0 56.6 -7.4 -4.1 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -0.4 -0.8 0.3 48.5 53.4 -2.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -3.6 0.1 -0.2 0.6 54.1 53.9 -2.4 -0.2 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -3.6 0.1 -0.6 0.4 51.6 53.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.7 -1.8 0.5 46.9 54.7 -1.6 -0.5 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 0.3 0.2 -1.7 0.5 54.3 55.2 -2.1 -0.2 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -0.3 -0.8 -2.8 0.5 48.6 53.1 -3.1 -0.6 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -3.5 1.1 -0.8 0.4 56.5 54.1 -2.2 0.3 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -1.8 -2.4 0.7 51.0 57.4 -3.5 -1.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -3.7 -4.4 -3.5 0.7 47.1 56.1 -5.4 -4.4 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -3.8 1.0 -0.2 0.4 57.7 53.4 -2.0 -0.4 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------