***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -0.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 60.7 56.2 -0.8 1.2 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 61.9 58.6 -1.8 -0.2 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 1.7 2.6 1.2 0.7 60.7 57.8 -0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -2.6 -1.3 0.8 56.7 57.0 -5.2 -3.1 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.8 58.1 56.7 -1.7 -0.5 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.9 -2.0 1.0 53.8 57.6 -2.5 -1.5 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.6 61.9 57.3 -1.7 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -3.5 -3.2 -1.4 1.0 56.0 57.0 -5.2 -3.9 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.8 59.7 56.6 -1.4 0.2 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 0.9 57.8 56.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 0.8 56.3 56.2 -1.8 -0.8 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 0.8 55.1 55.8 -2.6 -0.9 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 0.1 -0.3 -1.5 0.7 52.6 55.4 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 1.8 1.8 0.2 1.1 65.4 60.5 -1.0 0.7 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 0.2 0.6 -0.8 0.7 55.9 55.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.7 -1.4 0.8 53.9 56.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.9 62.1 59.2 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 1.1 59.7 58.4 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 63.0 59.2 -1.4 0.0 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -4.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.2 54.6 59.3 -6.3 -5.0 -2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 61.3 56.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.0 64.2 60.7 -1.4 0.0 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 64.3 59.9 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.0 62.4 59.1 -1.8 -0.2 0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 0.8 1.1 -0.2 0.8 62.7 58.0 -1.3 0.4 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.7 53.0 55.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.7 62.6 57.0 -1.6 0.4 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.2 0.8 54.8 56.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 1.3 59.2 59.9 -3.9 -2.4 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.7 61.5 57.8 -1.5 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------