***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 5.2 6.5 6.2 3.2 81.9 79.2 -0.5 1.3 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 4.2 4.4 6.0 3.4 77.2 78.2 -0.4 0.5 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 6.1 8.0 5.9 3.3 82.3 80.4 0.8 2.7 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 1.5 2.9 3.5 3.0 82.7 80.5 -4.7 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 3.9 4.8 4.1 3.0 83.7 81.5 -0.4 0.3 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 3.1 3.9 2.1 2.9 89.7 87.9 -1.7 -0.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 4.5 4.8 6.1 3.5 77.6 78.8 -0.1 0.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -0.3 0.3 2.8 3.1 82.9 81.7 -7.3 -4.3 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 4.7 5.7 4.4 3.0 85.2 83.5 -0.1 1.1 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 3.6 4.2 3.3 3.1 81.8 80.9 -0.7 0.3 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.1 86.3 84.2 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.1 86.1 84.2 -1.8 0.1 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 3.2 3.9 3.2 3.1 90.1 87.5 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 4.5 5.2 4.5 3.2 80.7 79.1 -0.3 1.2 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 3.3 4.9 4.7 3.1 88.1 84.7 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 3.7 5.0 3.4 3.1 88.9 86.7 0.1 1.3 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 4.0 4.1 5.8 3.3 75.7 77.0 -0.6 1.1 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 0.7 1.2 2.4 2.8 79.8 77.8 -2.0 -0.9 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 3.7 4.1 5.9 3.4 79.7 79.3 -0.6 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -0.7 -0.1 1.3 3.1 83.6 81.0 -5.4 -4.0 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 4.5 5.8 5.4 3.0 83.7 81.2 -0.4 0.5 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 3.4 3.7 5.8 3.3 76.7 77.4 -0.8 0.6 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 3.9 5.3 5.6 3.4 84.5 81.6 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 3.3 3.8 4.0 2.9 81.4 79.3 -0.7 0.3 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 4.3 5.4 4.9 3.1 82.9 80.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 3.0 4.1 3.4 3.2 89.2 86.4 -0.9 0.9 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 4.9 7.5 5.6 3.3 83.6 81.1 -0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 1.9 2.8 3.9 2.9 84.7 82.4 -1.2 0.4 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 2.3 3.5 1.8 2.8 81.0 79.2 -3.7 -2.6 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 4.8 5.3 6.1 3.4 78.8 78.9 -0.1 1.1 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------