***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 43.5 48.6 53.9 110.9 62.5 54.4 22.3 39.1 52.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 39.3 44.4 51.8 114.7 67.3 58.1 30.3 34.3 42.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 31.3 59.5 56.1 117.3 67.7 57.5 32.5 44.1 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 58.7 58.7 64.7 111.9 60.0 54.7 42.5 49.6 64.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 53.2 55.6 61.8 116.3 63.3 56.5 33.1 44.8 56.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 49.1 51.4 59.2 117.7 66.5 57.3 30.9 40.7 50.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 38.1 41.5 50.5 111.8 63.5 56.8 28.6 33.3 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 77.1 87.5 68.2 118.1 67.0 60.5 51.0 71.2 85.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 29.6 57.8 61.5 116.0 63.7 56.7 28.3 42.3 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 59.6 64.6 67.4 119.8 68.1 60.1 37.4 51.3 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 56.4 66.4 62.8 119.9 67.0 59.5 30.5 49.3 64.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 58.5 86.3 61.8 118.5 66.6 60.1 36.5 48.3 86.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 64.6 71.9 64.6 121.2 69.9 60.4 36.1 58.1 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 80.8 82.0 71.6 122.7 73.4 62.6 49.9 65.5 78.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 33.9 74.3 64.0 111.5 60.8 54.3 48.4 55.2 81.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 55.4 66.1 60.7 117.4 64.6 57.9 33.7 47.9 67.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 41.7 47.7 50.7 112.4 65.6 57.6 24.7 35.7 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 54.8 76.9 69.5 119.0 68.9 60.4 36.8 47.3 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 45.9 49.5 53.0 116.3 68.8 58.6 30.7 37.4 48.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 60.4 65.4 82.3 113.6 66.1 59.5 40.0 50.6 65.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 50.6 60.5 58.9 116.1 65.5 56.3 36.6 45.7 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 45.2 57.3 52.8 113.8 68.2 58.1 33.9 38.0 54.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 48.4 49.6 55.6 117.4 68.6 59.0 32.3 42.6 48.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 66.0 78.2 65.6 120.7 69.1 60.6 34.4 58.8 77.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 44.4 51.4 60.7 111.0 62.6 53.5 28.3 40.7 52.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 57.4 73.5 63.2 115.6 66.7 58.2 32.9 50.3 73.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 44.6 56.7 56.1 109.8 62.1 53.6 27.3 39.1 57.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 54.4 52.2 62.1 113.8 61.2 55.7 31.8 42.5 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 82.4 115.4 73.5 117.4 67.8 60.4 54.0 68.4 103.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.6 40.6 52.2 113.9 65.4 57.1 29.7 34.7 41.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------