***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.7 3.7 9.9 79.0 49.3 41.5 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.8 6.6 10.0 86.4 53.9 44.1 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.1 5.2 9.6 77.0 50.4 41.4 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 6.6 11.1 80.2 49.6 43.3 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.8 10.5 77.4 47.2 42.4 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.4 2.8 9.0 71.6 44.5 37.5 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.3 5.9 10.1 87.6 55.7 44.6 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.7 11.5 10.5 71.6 46.3 41.2 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.2 10.8 77.1 46.4 41.9 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.4 6.5 10.7 72.9 44.5 40.8 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.6 9.8 74.8 46.5 42.0 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.7 9.4 73.9 48.2 41.8 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.9 9.7 74.8 45.4 40.7 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.3 10.2 11.4 74.6 47.1 41.7 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.1 11.6 83.2 55.1 44.1 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.3 9.5 75.5 46.3 41.4 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.8 10.3 92.2 57.5 45.2 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.6 5.7 11.1 72.1 44.6 40.5 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.7 83.2 52.2 43.4 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.0 7.1 14.2 73.0 46.7 41.6 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.1 6.8 10.1 76.6 47.3 41.5 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.7 10.3 90.1 56.2 45.3 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.6 77.8 49.8 42.3 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.9 6.7 10.5 73.5 47.0 41.1 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.7 10.8 77.6 46.1 41.5 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.9 10.2 76.2 50.4 41.7 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 1.7 3.5 10.6 81.0 48.1 41.9 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.2 10.4 80.0 51.9 42.9 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.3 14.8 12.1 72.9 45.3 41.2 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.9 5.4 9.9 82.7 52.3 43.3 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------