***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.4 86.5 54.2 45.0 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.5 7.6 9.5 84.0 54.1 44.1 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 10.4 90.6 57.0 47.0 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.1 7.7 11.5 83.9 51.4 44.1 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.5 11.1 84.0 52.4 44.4 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.6 6.5 11.4 87.8 53.9 44.4 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.1 6.1 9.1 78.9 53.3 42.4 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 16.8 12.0 81.9 54.7 43.4 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.9 11.2 83.3 50.2 43.9 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.6 11.7 82.0 53.0 43.4 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.3 10.9 84.1 56.2 44.0 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.7 10.9 82.9 55.5 43.4 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.8 79.0 50.3 41.7 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.8 12.1 86.9 52.1 45.1 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.2 6.7 11.7 85.2 54.5 43.4 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.7 10.9 83.5 53.8 43.5 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.2 9.4 81.5 53.6 42.7 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 13.2 11.6 79.7 50.4 43.4 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.2 9.7 86.6 55.8 45.3 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.4 16.0 82.6 52.6 44.0 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 9.8 10.9 87.1 52.5 45.7 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.9 9.8 84.6 55.8 44.4 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.3 9.9 88.1 56.4 45.8 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.6 13.6 10.9 83.2 52.7 44.5 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.3 6.8 11.7 85.1 52.0 45.4 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.8 11.2 79.8 50.5 43.7 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.8 83.5 52.6 44.3 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.3 11.1 84.8 53.1 43.5 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 16.6 12.6 80.3 51.2 43.4 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.1 9.9 9.9 87.0 56.5 45.2 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------