***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.5 3.6 11.7 83.9 51.1 44.5 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.4 10.5 80.0 50.2 43.9 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.1 12.4 90.6 53.0 46.7 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.4 12.7 77.8 48.5 43.1 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.7 14.7 98.2 57.3 48.8 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.5 12.5 14.9 109.9 62.2 51.9 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.4 10.4 80.3 49.8 44.8 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.7 14.5 90.9 55.2 46.0 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.0 13.7 94.1 56.8 46.9 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.0 14.7 96.4 57.4 47.8 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.0 14.6 98.9 58.9 48.6 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.3 13.6 93.2 56.8 46.8 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.4 15.4 107.9 60.6 51.7 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.5 16.7 99.9 58.9 49.2 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.8 10.9 68.0 49.4 41.0 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.3 14.4 99.6 58.4 49.0 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.1 78.3 51.2 43.3 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.7 14.9 93.6 57.4 46.9 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.2 11.1 82.7 51.0 44.5 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.7 16.5 81.8 52.6 43.4 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.4 13.2 92.9 54.7 47.0 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.2 10.8 79.7 50.0 43.0 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.7 12.5 89.2 53.7 46.5 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.4 15.2 99.1 57.7 48.4 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.5 14.4 92.1 53.2 46.9 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.6 14.9 98.0 58.4 49.3 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.0 13.0 88.1 53.5 45.8 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.7 12.1 77.9 51.4 43.1 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.2 15.8 90.9 57.1 46.2 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.8 10.8 80.8 49.9 44.4 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------