***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 17.0 24.1 21.9 216.5 86.8 74.0 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 18.3 34.3 21.8 238.1 88.1 75.4 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 23.2 36.9 23.7 233.3 89.7 75.9 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 29.7 38.8 29.4 210.8 88.9 72.8 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 19.5 41.6 25.5 223.8 88.4 73.3 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 25.0 37.5 23.9 213.8 86.9 71.9 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 17.3 24.1 20.9 228.4 86.8 74.7 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 36.8 87.3 31.3 247.8 93.0 79.4 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 20.5 46.0 25.8 234.0 90.7 75.7 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 21.9 43.6 30.3 251.1 93.1 79.2 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 29.0 40.6 27.5 237.8 89.5 76.0 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 35.0 59.5 27.9 238.7 91.5 77.4 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 31.9 57.7 28.7 232.0 90.5 74.7 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 31.4 55.4 31.3 254.1 92.7 81.5 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 24.6 45.1 29.8 217.1 88.0 72.1 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 28.1 39.7 25.9 223.6 88.1 73.2 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 20.1 25.2 20.8 221.8 86.2 73.9 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 32.3 50.9 31.8 256.8 93.5 81.7 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 19.9 34.9 22.5 241.3 90.1 76.4 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 33.1 65.4 35.6 251.8 92.6 81.1 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 22.3 39.7 24.7 228.0 89.2 74.9 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 20.1 29.2 21.9 223.3 89.0 74.2 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 19.9 35.6 23.7 240.7 91.2 77.4 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 25.5 39.7 28.9 250.8 91.6 80.4 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.7 27.7 23.9 208.1 87.2 71.4 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 32.8 55.9 27.0 221.8 90.3 72.7 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 17.5 25.3 21.8 208.8 86.5 72.5 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 26.3 43.6 28.6 219.3 89.3 73.3 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 47.5 72.6 33.0 254.4 93.0 82.3 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 21.3 27.1 21.7 234.9 89.1 75.6 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------