***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.3 7.5 -0.1 47.1 48.0 6.2 7.6 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.8 7.5 -0.1 49.0 47.7 6.2 6.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.2 7.8 -0.2 45.3 47.1 7.0 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.2 2.7 4.6 -0.1 47.5 48.7 1.7 2.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.5 7.8 6.0 -0.2 43.7 46.2 7.4 8.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.3 5.2 -0.3 42.4 44.1 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.8 7.4 -0.1 49.5 48.1 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.1 1.3 5.3 -0.5 40.4 43.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.9 8.3 6.9 -0.2 44.6 46.5 8.0 8.5 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.5 6.1 -0.3 42.6 44.8 6.9 7.6 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.2 6.2 -0.4 42.4 44.2 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 5.7 -0.5 39.8 42.5 7.6 8.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.8 5.7 -0.6 37.7 41.1 7.6 8.4 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.2 7.4 -0.1 48.4 47.7 6.8 8.3 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.8 6.0 0.1 50.5 50.8 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 5.7 -0.5 41.2 43.2 8.3 8.9 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.5 7.3 0.0 49.9 49.1 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.4 5.7 6.0 -0.3 43.6 45.1 5.6 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.2 7.6 -0.1 48.5 47.4 6.2 7.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.5 3.9 4.4 -0.5 41.2 43.1 3.6 5.1 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.5 7.8 7.5 -0.1 45.1 47.2 7.1 8.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.7 7.5 0.0 50.3 49.3 6.1 6.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.4 7.9 -0.2 47.6 47.3 6.4 7.5 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.5 7.2 -0.2 46.2 46.6 7.6 8.6 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.1 6.3 -0.1 46.4 48.1 6.3 7.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.5 5.1 -0.6 38.7 41.3 6.9 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.4 7.8 7.1 -0.1 47.7 48.0 7.0 7.9 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.1 5.2 -0.1 48.0 48.2 6.5 7.1 8.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.6 5.5 -0.4 42.4 44.6 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.9 7.5 -0.1 47.4 47.3 6.3 7.0 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------